Saif al-Islam, a son of former Libyan dictator Muammer Gaddafi, has formally registered as a candidate in his country’s presidential elections due to be held on December 24.
His entry into an unstable political scene divided between squabbling factions is expected to further complicate efforts to hold the election. The ballot is seen by the UN and western governments as a necessary step to unify the oil-exporting country emerging from civil war, analysts say. Muammer Gaddafi was overthrown during a Nato-backed revolution in 2011.
A high-level meeting on Friday in Paris attended by leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Libya, the United Nations and US vice-president Kamala Harris, stressed the importance of holding the poll on time and threatened to slap sanctions on anyone who tries to undermine it.
Wolfram Lacher, Libya analyst at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Saif al-Islam’s candidacy could spur other powerful figures and would-be candidates who are seeking to postpone or scuttle the election to intensify their efforts. There are disputes between political forces in eastern and western Libya over the legal framework governing the poll — something that could signal that the losing side will refuse to accept the results.
“A big part of the opposition to the poll from political forces, especially in western Libya, is that Saif, or Khalifa Haftar [the strongman controlling eastern Libya] would win,” said Lacher. “There are also those politicians who are resisting the election because they want to hold on to their posts. I expect calls for a boycott of the election to get louder now.”
On Sunday, widely circulated footage showed Saif al-Islam, once his father’s heir apparent, filling in the registration papers at the electoral commission’s office in the town of Sabha in Libya’s Saharan south, where he is understood to have support from local groups. The 49-year old has been out of view for almost a decade after his capture by forces from the western town of Zintan during the armed uprising of 2011. He appeared dressed in traditional Libyan robes, with a turban on his head and sporting a beard.
He was freed in 2017, but the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant against him for crimes against humanity during the 2011 war. The Libyan prosecution also has an arrest warrant against him.
Saif al-Islam has a constituency among his own tribal group and others that sided with his father. According to polls, a wider swath of Libyans support him because they are nostalgic for a past before 2011 when the country was stable and prosperous, albeit under Gaddafi’s dictatorial rule.
Lacher says polls place the younger Gaddafi at the top of the list of politicians who would win a presidential election, but he notes that this could change once he starts to speak in public and interact with his supporters.
“No one really knows what he stands for today,” said Lacher. “For years he has been that figure on which people projected their hopes without his leading any sort of project. Even if it all happens and he wins, I think it is totally excluded that he could take office in Tripoli or the east. ”